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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position & Settled Issues

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It includes a single mention to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018

All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger & A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.